Tag Archives: StockTwits

Setting The Tone For The Year

Welcome back! Hope you had an enjoyable holiday with your loved ones and got some well-deserved rest and relaxation. Markets got off to a choppy start to the new year after a rough finish to 2014, with the Dow finishing barely in the green after an early 100+ point pop that quickly fizzled out, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed red on the first trading day of 2015. Amidst the volatility gold managed to stage a modest rally on Friday, but still under the $1,200 level, with miners GDX and juniors GDXJ ending strongly up on the week. Natural gas  continued to crumble with an EIA draw of -26bcf, well below expectations of -38bcf despite colder weather forecasts. Futures closed below $3 for the second time on Friday despite a strong morning rally that held above $3 most of the morning but was abruptly cut in half with a massive plunge back below by 14:25ET. The triple-leveraged UGAZ and DGAZ ETFs have been trending the past few weeks on StockTwits, with UGAZ losing more than 75% of its value in just over a month! Conversely, DGAZ has more than doubled over the same period.

Russian markets have been closed this week since Dec. 30th and reopen on Monday, but with another holiday on Jan. 7th. This has not stopped traders from making bets on the RSX Russia ETF as well as its triple leveraged cousins RUSL and RUSS, which have seen a wild ride tracking the volatile movements in crude oil and the ruble, both of which have resumed their downtrend.

The first full trading week of 2015 should set a more decisive tone for the short term, with some key economic releases including jobs data Wednesday through Friday, as well as the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. ISM non-manufacturing numbers are also due Tuesday morning (full calendar here). Some notable earnings this week include Micron Technology, WD-40, SUPERVALU, Bed Bath and Beyond, Constellation Brands and Apollo Education. As usual Alcoa kicks off the main reporting season the week after on Jan. 12th, with major financials Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reporting the same week.

That’s it for now- trade well and stay disciplined, and wishing you all a great start to 2015!

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The Swiss say ‘NEIN’ to more gold in the Swiss National Bank

Gold is starting to look like Swiss cheese these days, with a lot of holes and ready to meltdown into a fondue… the shortened trading day in the US markets on Friday started off with a modest 0.7% drop in gold from $1,190 to $1,182, but it eventually cascaded into a massive 2.65% decline, ending down over $31 for the day to close at $1,165, ahead of the weekend Swiss referendum on whether the SNB should hold a minimum of 20% gold in its reserves. Today, we got the answer, and it was a resounding ‘No’ at 77% of the vote.

Someone seemed to know something during Friday’s equities session as junior miners were shellacked, with GDXJ down more than 12%, and the corresponding 3x leveraged bull (JNUG) and bear (JDST) ETFs making 35%+ moves. Interestingly there seemed to be a lot of new goldbugs and gold bulls joining StockTwits in the last couple of weeks, and their recent bravado led me to believe we were at an inflection point. Of course, the biggest news was the stunning (or maybe not so stunning, if you had been expecting OPEC to not cut their production) 10.3% plunge in oil, which roiled energy names like CVX, COP, XOM. Another double-digit winner was ERY, the 3x energy company ETF (ERX is the bull ETF with a corresponding move in the opposite direction). Even though the S&P 500 was green for most of the morning it eventually succumbed to the selloff in the energy sector, closing red for the day, having touched yet another all-time high. However, airlines were a huge beneficiary of the double whammy of lower oil prices and holiday travel, with UAL, AAL, LUV and JBLU leading the charge.

On the economic calendar this week we have China Manufacturing PMI numbers out tonight at 8pm ET as well as HSBC Manufacturing PMI at 8:45pm. Europe Manufacturing PMI is out tomorrow morning at 4am, US ISM Manufacturing follows at 10am, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking on Tuesday at 8:30am, and an ECB interest rate decision and press conference on Thursday at 7:45 and 8:30am respectively. US jobless claims will be out at 8:30am that day, and all payroll numbers out on Friday at 8:30am.

Have a great week all, trade well, and stay disciplined!